2009 - Still grinding, still not blogging!

June 2009! Where does the time go?

I am still grinding $50NL, still winning, but not at the rate that I would like. I have taken the occasional shot at $100NL, but it has not generally worked out too well.

My game has certainly improved, but not perhaps as much as I would have liked.

In just over 3 weeks, I will be headed to Vegas for my annual pilgrimage to the WSOP. This year will be the fourth renewal for me, and will be the biggest and best trip yet!

I have originally scheduled to be in Vegas for 8 days, but fate has intervened to the extent that I have been summoned to Boston for a Sales Meeting during the week before my scheduled trip, which means that I will get an extra 3 nights in Vegas tagged onto the front of my trip! (The alternative would have been to fly home for just 24 hours, before heading back across the Atlantic).

This change also means that I will be in town for the July 4th weekend, which was super-fishy last year at the poker tables! I will also be able to attend the 2+2 Party at the Hard Rock Poker Lounge, which should be a good crack!

I am staying the first 4 nights at the Four Queens Hotel on Freemont St, followed by 4 nights at the MGM, ending up with 3 nights at Ballys. I am very pleased with this plan. I have been meaning to stay downtown for several years, and I had an awesome time at the MGM last year.

Last year I played 47.5 hours of NL cash-games during my six playing days in Vegas. I would hope to come close to 80 hours of table time during the 10 playing days that I will have this year.

It's been a while...!

14 months to be exact.

I had been spending too much time playing, thinking about and blogging about poker, so I cut out the thinking and blogging!

In Aug 07, I started a new job and had (by my standards) a heavy losing month (-$500). So I decided to focus a bit more on my new job, and a bit less on poker.

I didn't, however, stop playing, although I did drift for about 6 months, playing barely breakeven online, hopping from 6-max NL to 6-max NL SnG's, to 6-max LHE, before finally settling on Full Ring NL. The latter decision was made a couple of months before my 2008 trip to Vegas for the WSOP, so that I could maximise my chances in the soft live NL cash games.

I had quit my Cardrunners membership in about Sept or Oct last year, and I had no training subscription until July this year, when I joined DeucesCracked. Almost everything about DC is superior to how CR was last year (although I concede that CR has no doubt improved in the mean time). The main benefits that DC have are no DRM, iPod compatible videos, more class-room oriented content in ppt format, less arrogant instructors etc etc.









I began to focus on $50NL Full Ring in May 08. Although I was under-rolled at that time, with only $500 online, I figured that I could reload if I needed to.

I have been extremely pleased with my results (with the exception of a nasty 10-buyin downswing in July), with total winnings approaching $2k in 5.5 months. I feel that my game has improved dramatically over this period, though a combination of playing an average of 300 hands/day along with some moderate studying.

I recently withdrew part of my BR to cover a few incidentals, so I am still slightly under-rolled for $100NL, but I am certainly hoping to be able to move up at some point in the next month or so, once my online roll reaches 20 buyins at $100NL.

I don't plan to get back into the habit of posting every day, but I certainly will try to keep the blog regularly updated, entirely for my own benefit, to track what I hope will be my continued progress through the Great Poker Adventure. I am certainly still just as enchanted with the game as I was when I first started playing in May 05.

Variance?

Is something that I have been avoiding this week, by moving temporarily down to $20NL, but I got to thinking about it whilst commenting on Ricci's blog this morning (http://riccinas.blogspot.com/).

Having looked closely at both $20NL and $50NL on Prima this month, I would say that the main difference is that there are more aggressive players on $50NL.

This is to be expected, of course, but it strikes me that it does very dramatically increase the variance that you will experience.

Apologies for the extremely over-simplified maths that follows(!), but as the stakes are 2.5x higher, and there are perhaps twice as many aggro players, I think that the $50NL game could easily result in swings that are 5x greater (in pure dollar terms) than at $20NL.

I think it is possible to imagine that people are slightly less likely to push all-in at $50NL than at $25NL, simply because it is more money to risk, but I think that this is very significantly more than offset by the fact that people are willing to 3bet and 4bet either very light, or with complete air.

I know that this is a grossly simplistic line of thought, but I am thinking that a session "running good" at $20NL might result in a win of say $20 in 200 hands, and a session "running bad" at $20NL might result in a loss of say $15.

By applying the 5x multiplier, this could mean that running good at $50NL I could win $100 in 200 hands, whilst I could expect to lose $75 in 200 hands when running bad. Does this make sense?

Also, when considering $100NL, I assume that this game is a further degree more aggressive, and so could result in even more variance?

I am not sure where this line of thought is leading, except to reinforce the need to be properly bankrolled for a given level, and to ensure that one sets stop-losses when moving up, to make sure that the variance doesn't consume you whilst you are finding your feet at the higher stakes.

So, when moving up, it is perfectly possible to imagine that you string 4 or 5 sessions of "running bad" together, add in a a bit of tilt at your "bad luck", and before you know it, you have lost 7 or 8 buyins or nearly half your bankroll (assuming that you started with the 20x minimum for the new level).

Food for thought...

Weekly Report - Sunday 19th August 2007

NL ($0.50) - 1,320 hands - VPIP 18.89 - PFR 15.33 - Lost $326.55 - BB/100 29.40

NL ($0.25) - 451 hands - VPIP 18.40 - PFR 15.52 - Won $31.20 - BB/100 13.84

NL ($0.20) - 661 hands - VPIP 18.91 - PFR 14.07 - Won $92.21 - BB/100 34.88

Weekly Totals 2,432 hands - VPIP 19.00 - PFR 15.09 - Lost $203.14 - BB/100 1.38

Monthly Totals 11,334 hands - VPIP 18.09 - PFR 14.65 - Won $92.77 - BB/100 2.31

Weekly Rakeback - $22.70 + $23.07 = $45.77

Monthly Rakeback - $127.11 + $127.77 = $254.88

A rough week, with the signs of green shoots of recovery after I had the sense to drop down a level.

I certainly ran badly at times early in the week. I had sessions where it seemed like I couldn't hit a flop, or complete a draw to save my life. I also had sessions where it seemed like every villain seemed to play back at me every time when I had nothing, and folded every time I had the goods! Weeks like this make it easier to understand how some people manage to convince themselves that poker is rigged! However, I also played some really poor poker along the way. Several times I caight myself tilting and walked away to save myself from any more punishment!

Having decided to step down to $20NL on Prima, I immediately got things back on track. I have also played some $25NL on Full Tilt over the past couple of days, as something strange was going on at Prima, as the non-turbo $20NL tables all had wait lists in double-figures, and no new tables seemed to be opening.

Having jumped between Prima and FT, It has been extremely clear to me just how much better the average player is on FT than Prima. On Prima at $20NL, there are hardly any players who have PFR stats at all close to their VPIP numbers. Your average player at Prima $20NL plays something like 40/10. However, on FT $25NL there are many more players playing decent numbers in the vicinity of 20/15 or so. In fact, I would say that judging things purely by VPIP/PFR stats, the $25NL tables at FT are actually tougher than the $50NL tables at Prima.

Now, I know that this is not all that it takes to be a winning player by a long chalk, but I was still very surprised that this was so apparent.

I plan to play this week at $20/$25 NL and then I have a week's vacation in Portugal. I will then reassess which level to play when I come home refreshed from a week of no poker.

Not Very Clever

It has been an insanely busy week. I have been to Holland twice this week for work, which has limited my poker quite a bit.

However, I still found the time to drop half a dozen buyins at $50NL, dropping me back down to level on the month, with a combination of running bad, playing too aggressively, and donking off stacks with poor calls/bluffs etc!

So, I have decided to drop down a level (to $20NL on Prima, as they don't spread a $25NL game) to rebuild my confidence. So far I am up 4 buyins in 650 hands at $20NL and I am enjoying my poker again. I will probably hang at $20 NL until the end of the month, before assessing whether I am ready to move back up to $50NL or not.

Breaking the Law(s), breaking the law(s)!

Anyone out there old enough to remember Judas Priest from the late seventies? I very much doubt it!

So I have started the week with one solid session, where I followed my own rules to the letter, made on pretty big lay-down and finished down just very slightly (offset by rakeback, back to break-even).

Then I played another short session, where I seemed to come under lots of pressure from all villains, good players and bad players alike, and I ended up felting myself with Aces against a pretty obvious flush, and then being somewhat tilted, I ended up getting over-busy with TT and dropping another 1/2 a buyin.

What a moron I am, sometimes!

So, I am even more committed now to getting away from 1-pair hands in the face of aggression, Oh, and not overplaying pocket tens! lol

So anyway, here is the big "Rule4" laydown :

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1390081

Villain plays 77/4/0.3, which are pretty incredible stats, but in fairness to him, over 126 hands that I have on him, he is only slightly in the red, so he obviously plays pretty well post-flop.

I thought for a long while about making this call, but I decided that whilst he could well have a worse King than me, I think that he shows up with a set or a raggedy 2-pair much more often.

I will post the AA debacle on my Big Hands Blog if anyone is in need of a laugh at my expense this morning!

I am so committed to getting away from 1-pair hands from now on, that I can't wait to get back to tables this evening, to prove to myself that I have the discipline to make this work!

Weekly Report - Sunday 19th August 2007

NL ($0.50) - 3,849 hands - VPIP 17.10 - PFR 14.37 - Won $43.49 - BB/100 1.13

Monthly Totals 8,902 hands - VPIP 17.84 - PFR 14.52 - Won $295.91 - BB/100 3.32

Weekly Rakeback - $45.40 + $44.57 = $89.97

Monthly Rakeback - $104.41 + $104.70 = $209.11

The greatest comeback since Lazarus last night, saw me get hit by the deck in spectacular fashion, to post a winning session of nearly 4 buyins in 350 hands, to actually post a profit on the week!

Suddenly it was me instead of the villains flopping sets and trips, completing flush draws, getting paid off with big pairs etc...

I was playing strictly according to my new rules (from yesterday's blog) but I only really faced one tricky spot, where I made a "Rule 4" laydown.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1386202

As it happened, the villain, who plays 35/15/1.2, was pushing his draw hard and I folded the best hand, but I am thrilled by this laydown, as I think it shows a new maturity in my game. I will be making this laydown all day long from now on.

I have posted 2 more hands in my Big Hands Blog if you should care to review them, although they both pretty much played themselves.

(Somewhat of a) Bloodbath!

I have been playing like an uber-donk for the past few days.

I am down 3 buyins for the week in 3.5k hands, and quite honestly, the way I have been playing it could easily be more.

I have just spent a couple of hours penance, posting 20 (yes, TWENTY!) +/-65BB hands on my big-hands blog, and it doesn't make pleasant reading! The score was Hero 8 - 12 Villains, and it could have been worse! I don't expect anyone to slog their way through all twenty hands, but I would welcome any comments that anyone cares to make.

I have certainly had a fairly cold run of cards, running into set after set, and trips after trips, but I also seem to refuse to lay down TPGK, when I run into serious resistance.

So, it is time for some new rules!

1. The rules for playing TT and JJ still stand. (See last week's post) I do seem to be sticking to these rules pretty well.

2. Be very wary of AQ OOP. This hand may be raised if there are limpers, but it should never be 3bet OOP, and it must be played cautiously postflop.

3. Pay close attention to the villain's stats when considering a Cbet. Never Cbet with air, without first considering the likelihood that the bet will be called.

4. Fold one pair hands where I have no decent draw in the face of any significant postflop aggression. (Caveat : this doesn't include where I am donk-led into. ) I know that this will mean that I am folding the best hand as much as half the time, but this is OK. Even if I am folding the best hand 3/4 of the time, the money that I will save by not repeatedly felting myself when I do in fact have the worst of it will make this a +EV play overall.

I know that rule 4 above is pretty radical, at least it will be for me(!), but I do feel sure that this will significantly contribute to my long-term winrate. I guess that this approach will make me somewhat vulnerable to villains who decide to bluff raise me repeatedly, but I think that this is OK, because they will pay heavy price on the occasions when I do have a decent hand/decent draw.

I am particularly looking for comments and suggested refinements to rule 4. Please help!

Good luck,

robracing

Yo-Yo Poker...

I have played quite a bit in the past couple of days, and I am almost exactly break-even for my troubles.

It seems that, no matter how a session starts out, I manage to end up even! I start off by donking off a stack, and then I manage to grind it back. I start out with quick double-up, and then I find new and imaginative ways to give it all back!

I am playing too much, and I am not thinking enough about the spots where I am getting my money in.

I definitely have a tendency to always think positively about my position vis-a-vis the board and my opponent! I am far too quick to assign an inferior hand to the villain, or put him on a bare bluff.

I thought that DodgyKen's blog yesterday was illuminating where he had a bunch of situations where he had a decent 2-pair hand, ran into serious resistance and he folded each time.

If I am ever to become a competent poker player, I have got to be able to release hands more often in situations like this!

Hand 1 : http://www.pokerhand.org/?1377714

Villain plays 36/0 over only 11 hands.

Hand 2 : http://www.pokerhand.org/?1377720

Villain plays 48/6. Repeat after me, "do not go broke on one-pair hands!!!"

Hand 3 : http://www.pokerhand.org/?1377746

Villain plays 43/31. Here is one that I did get away from, but I wasn't thrilled with the hand!

There are plenty more where those three came from. I suppose that I should be glad that I ended up even, after a couple of days where I feel like I played like an idiot for a good chunk of the time.

At this rate, I will need at least another month at $50NL, before I even think of taking a shot at $100NL. On a positive note, I am on target to clear more than $300 in rakeback this month!

Wild Swings, You Make My Heart Palpitate ...!

648 hands so far this week, has seen me run into pocket Aces three times in one insane 5 minute spell, blow through 2 buyins with hands I should have gotten away from, get cooler'd by idiots calling with rubbish and getting rewarded etc etc. However, I have also picked up some decent hands and so I am only down half a buyin (and plus a few grey hairs!) through all this insanity.

I have 3 hands to post on my new Big Hands blog, two of which are the aforementioned stack-dust-offs, which I am not proud of!

A couple of times yesterday, I was pushed to the brink of insanity when I saw the trash that these idiots have been calling with, only to get rewarded when they made a hand on the river. At these times I desperately try to assume an air of zen-like calm and remind myself of Howard Lederer's advice, which is to say to myself, "Ah yes, calls like that are the reason why I am playing here!"

It isn't easy though...!