Variance?

Is something that I have been avoiding this week, by moving temporarily down to $20NL, but I got to thinking about it whilst commenting on Ricci's blog this morning (http://riccinas.blogspot.com/).

Having looked closely at both $20NL and $50NL on Prima this month, I would say that the main difference is that there are more aggressive players on $50NL.

This is to be expected, of course, but it strikes me that it does very dramatically increase the variance that you will experience.

Apologies for the extremely over-simplified maths that follows(!), but as the stakes are 2.5x higher, and there are perhaps twice as many aggro players, I think that the $50NL game could easily result in swings that are 5x greater (in pure dollar terms) than at $20NL.

I think it is possible to imagine that people are slightly less likely to push all-in at $50NL than at $25NL, simply because it is more money to risk, but I think that this is very significantly more than offset by the fact that people are willing to 3bet and 4bet either very light, or with complete air.

I know that this is a grossly simplistic line of thought, but I am thinking that a session "running good" at $20NL might result in a win of say $20 in 200 hands, and a session "running bad" at $20NL might result in a loss of say $15.

By applying the 5x multiplier, this could mean that running good at $50NL I could win $100 in 200 hands, whilst I could expect to lose $75 in 200 hands when running bad. Does this make sense?

Also, when considering $100NL, I assume that this game is a further degree more aggressive, and so could result in even more variance?

I am not sure where this line of thought is leading, except to reinforce the need to be properly bankrolled for a given level, and to ensure that one sets stop-losses when moving up, to make sure that the variance doesn't consume you whilst you are finding your feet at the higher stakes.

So, when moving up, it is perfectly possible to imagine that you string 4 or 5 sessions of "running bad" together, add in a a bit of tilt at your "bad luck", and before you know it, you have lost 7 or 8 buyins or nearly half your bankroll (assuming that you started with the 20x minimum for the new level).

Food for thought...

Weekly Report - Sunday 19th August 2007

NL ($0.50) - 1,320 hands - VPIP 18.89 - PFR 15.33 - Lost $326.55 - BB/100 29.40

NL ($0.25) - 451 hands - VPIP 18.40 - PFR 15.52 - Won $31.20 - BB/100 13.84

NL ($0.20) - 661 hands - VPIP 18.91 - PFR 14.07 - Won $92.21 - BB/100 34.88

Weekly Totals 2,432 hands - VPIP 19.00 - PFR 15.09 - Lost $203.14 - BB/100 1.38

Monthly Totals 11,334 hands - VPIP 18.09 - PFR 14.65 - Won $92.77 - BB/100 2.31

Weekly Rakeback - $22.70 + $23.07 = $45.77

Monthly Rakeback - $127.11 + $127.77 = $254.88

A rough week, with the signs of green shoots of recovery after I had the sense to drop down a level.

I certainly ran badly at times early in the week. I had sessions where it seemed like I couldn't hit a flop, or complete a draw to save my life. I also had sessions where it seemed like every villain seemed to play back at me every time when I had nothing, and folded every time I had the goods! Weeks like this make it easier to understand how some people manage to convince themselves that poker is rigged! However, I also played some really poor poker along the way. Several times I caight myself tilting and walked away to save myself from any more punishment!

Having decided to step down to $20NL on Prima, I immediately got things back on track. I have also played some $25NL on Full Tilt over the past couple of days, as something strange was going on at Prima, as the non-turbo $20NL tables all had wait lists in double-figures, and no new tables seemed to be opening.

Having jumped between Prima and FT, It has been extremely clear to me just how much better the average player is on FT than Prima. On Prima at $20NL, there are hardly any players who have PFR stats at all close to their VPIP numbers. Your average player at Prima $20NL plays something like 40/10. However, on FT $25NL there are many more players playing decent numbers in the vicinity of 20/15 or so. In fact, I would say that judging things purely by VPIP/PFR stats, the $25NL tables at FT are actually tougher than the $50NL tables at Prima.

Now, I know that this is not all that it takes to be a winning player by a long chalk, but I was still very surprised that this was so apparent.

I plan to play this week at $20/$25 NL and then I have a week's vacation in Portugal. I will then reassess which level to play when I come home refreshed from a week of no poker.

Not Very Clever

It has been an insanely busy week. I have been to Holland twice this week for work, which has limited my poker quite a bit.

However, I still found the time to drop half a dozen buyins at $50NL, dropping me back down to level on the month, with a combination of running bad, playing too aggressively, and donking off stacks with poor calls/bluffs etc!

So, I have decided to drop down a level (to $20NL on Prima, as they don't spread a $25NL game) to rebuild my confidence. So far I am up 4 buyins in 650 hands at $20NL and I am enjoying my poker again. I will probably hang at $20 NL until the end of the month, before assessing whether I am ready to move back up to $50NL or not.

Breaking the Law(s), breaking the law(s)!

Anyone out there old enough to remember Judas Priest from the late seventies? I very much doubt it!

So I have started the week with one solid session, where I followed my own rules to the letter, made on pretty big lay-down and finished down just very slightly (offset by rakeback, back to break-even).

Then I played another short session, where I seemed to come under lots of pressure from all villains, good players and bad players alike, and I ended up felting myself with Aces against a pretty obvious flush, and then being somewhat tilted, I ended up getting over-busy with TT and dropping another 1/2 a buyin.

What a moron I am, sometimes!

So, I am even more committed now to getting away from 1-pair hands in the face of aggression, Oh, and not overplaying pocket tens! lol

So anyway, here is the big "Rule4" laydown :

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1390081

Villain plays 77/4/0.3, which are pretty incredible stats, but in fairness to him, over 126 hands that I have on him, he is only slightly in the red, so he obviously plays pretty well post-flop.

I thought for a long while about making this call, but I decided that whilst he could well have a worse King than me, I think that he shows up with a set or a raggedy 2-pair much more often.

I will post the AA debacle on my Big Hands Blog if anyone is in need of a laugh at my expense this morning!

I am so committed to getting away from 1-pair hands from now on, that I can't wait to get back to tables this evening, to prove to myself that I have the discipline to make this work!

Weekly Report - Sunday 19th August 2007

NL ($0.50) - 3,849 hands - VPIP 17.10 - PFR 14.37 - Won $43.49 - BB/100 1.13

Monthly Totals 8,902 hands - VPIP 17.84 - PFR 14.52 - Won $295.91 - BB/100 3.32

Weekly Rakeback - $45.40 + $44.57 = $89.97

Monthly Rakeback - $104.41 + $104.70 = $209.11

The greatest comeback since Lazarus last night, saw me get hit by the deck in spectacular fashion, to post a winning session of nearly 4 buyins in 350 hands, to actually post a profit on the week!

Suddenly it was me instead of the villains flopping sets and trips, completing flush draws, getting paid off with big pairs etc...

I was playing strictly according to my new rules (from yesterday's blog) but I only really faced one tricky spot, where I made a "Rule 4" laydown.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1386202

As it happened, the villain, who plays 35/15/1.2, was pushing his draw hard and I folded the best hand, but I am thrilled by this laydown, as I think it shows a new maturity in my game. I will be making this laydown all day long from now on.

I have posted 2 more hands in my Big Hands Blog if you should care to review them, although they both pretty much played themselves.

(Somewhat of a) Bloodbath!

I have been playing like an uber-donk for the past few days.

I am down 3 buyins for the week in 3.5k hands, and quite honestly, the way I have been playing it could easily be more.

I have just spent a couple of hours penance, posting 20 (yes, TWENTY!) +/-65BB hands on my big-hands blog, and it doesn't make pleasant reading! The score was Hero 8 - 12 Villains, and it could have been worse! I don't expect anyone to slog their way through all twenty hands, but I would welcome any comments that anyone cares to make.

I have certainly had a fairly cold run of cards, running into set after set, and trips after trips, but I also seem to refuse to lay down TPGK, when I run into serious resistance.

So, it is time for some new rules!

1. The rules for playing TT and JJ still stand. (See last week's post) I do seem to be sticking to these rules pretty well.

2. Be very wary of AQ OOP. This hand may be raised if there are limpers, but it should never be 3bet OOP, and it must be played cautiously postflop.

3. Pay close attention to the villain's stats when considering a Cbet. Never Cbet with air, without first considering the likelihood that the bet will be called.

4. Fold one pair hands where I have no decent draw in the face of any significant postflop aggression. (Caveat : this doesn't include where I am donk-led into. ) I know that this will mean that I am folding the best hand as much as half the time, but this is OK. Even if I am folding the best hand 3/4 of the time, the money that I will save by not repeatedly felting myself when I do in fact have the worst of it will make this a +EV play overall.

I know that rule 4 above is pretty radical, at least it will be for me(!), but I do feel sure that this will significantly contribute to my long-term winrate. I guess that this approach will make me somewhat vulnerable to villains who decide to bluff raise me repeatedly, but I think that this is OK, because they will pay heavy price on the occasions when I do have a decent hand/decent draw.

I am particularly looking for comments and suggested refinements to rule 4. Please help!

Good luck,

robracing

Yo-Yo Poker...

I have played quite a bit in the past couple of days, and I am almost exactly break-even for my troubles.

It seems that, no matter how a session starts out, I manage to end up even! I start off by donking off a stack, and then I manage to grind it back. I start out with quick double-up, and then I find new and imaginative ways to give it all back!

I am playing too much, and I am not thinking enough about the spots where I am getting my money in.

I definitely have a tendency to always think positively about my position vis-a-vis the board and my opponent! I am far too quick to assign an inferior hand to the villain, or put him on a bare bluff.

I thought that DodgyKen's blog yesterday was illuminating where he had a bunch of situations where he had a decent 2-pair hand, ran into serious resistance and he folded each time.

If I am ever to become a competent poker player, I have got to be able to release hands more often in situations like this!

Hand 1 : http://www.pokerhand.org/?1377714

Villain plays 36/0 over only 11 hands.

Hand 2 : http://www.pokerhand.org/?1377720

Villain plays 48/6. Repeat after me, "do not go broke on one-pair hands!!!"

Hand 3 : http://www.pokerhand.org/?1377746

Villain plays 43/31. Here is one that I did get away from, but I wasn't thrilled with the hand!

There are plenty more where those three came from. I suppose that I should be glad that I ended up even, after a couple of days where I feel like I played like an idiot for a good chunk of the time.

At this rate, I will need at least another month at $50NL, before I even think of taking a shot at $100NL. On a positive note, I am on target to clear more than $300 in rakeback this month!

Wild Swings, You Make My Heart Palpitate ...!

648 hands so far this week, has seen me run into pocket Aces three times in one insane 5 minute spell, blow through 2 buyins with hands I should have gotten away from, get cooler'd by idiots calling with rubbish and getting rewarded etc etc. However, I have also picked up some decent hands and so I am only down half a buyin (and plus a few grey hairs!) through all this insanity.

I have 3 hands to post on my new Big Hands blog, two of which are the aforementioned stack-dust-offs, which I am not proud of!

A couple of times yesterday, I was pushed to the brink of insanity when I saw the trash that these idiots have been calling with, only to get rewarded when they made a hand on the river. At these times I desperately try to assume an air of zen-like calm and remind myself of Howard Lederer's advice, which is to say to myself, "Ah yes, calls like that are the reason why I am playing here!"

It isn't easy though...!

Dedicated Follower Of Fashion...!

Never being one to see a bandwagon passing, without jumping on it, I have followed DodgyKen/noeledge/CTS etc. in starting a new blog where I will analyse every hand that I play that results in a swing of at least +/-65BB.

Click on the link to the right, should you care to view my incoherent ramblings!

Weekly Report - Sunday 12th August 2007

NL ($0.50) - 2,642 hands - VPIP 18.28 - PFR 14.69 - Won $338.02 - BB/100 12.79

Monthly Totals 5,053 hands - VPIP 18.40 - PFR 14.64 - Won $252.42 - BB/100 5.00



A very satisfactory week, particularly as I had a bit if a wobble early on, and blew off a couple of buy-ins playing TT and JJ far too forcibly, hence my new rules for these tricky hands.

I feel like I have a good feel now for $50NL. I am now comfortable playing two tables and taking notes on every significant hand that gets shown-down on both tables.

I am very hopeful that I will be ready to take a shot at $100NL by the start of September.

The Sun is Shining!

And I am feeling much more positive, having snuck in a crafty little 120-hand early morning session today, where I won a solid 2 buy-ins.

It is amazing how clearly one can think about the game, when things are running according to plan. (The concepts below are not new to me, or at all groundbreaking, but as I was walking to my office this morning, they really took shape in tremendous clarity).

It struck me that a huge part of my success or failure whilst playing poker depends upon getting well paid-off when I have a big hand. The whole reason that we strive to find sufficient spots to PFR around 20% of the hands we are dealt, is to disguise the spots where we have monster hands, and so increase the likelihood that we do get paid.

As usual today, I was splashing around, getting involved in a few pots, "giving some action", and generally running at about even, until I picked up the following hand:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1353883

Now, I know! This hand could not possibly have worked out any better. My slightly tricky call preflop was rewarded with the perfect flop. I had the luxury of being able to check the flop without fearing the flush draw, and the villain's flush presumably completed on the river, so allowing me to get it all in.

As this hand played out, I probably could have played it almost any way postflop, and got paid. However, I had been putting this guy to the test with a few aggressive plays, and so my apparent passive line on this hand, combined with what could have appeared to be a weak lead on the river sucked him in perfectly.

The point to this ramble, is that I think that if one can just show a break-even result on all the image-building splashing around, then that is an absolutely fine result. Most 200-300 hand sessions will likely have one or two big hands that will define the results for the session, hopefully in your favour. Sure, there will be times when you only have the 2nd best hand, your monster draw doesn't quite get there, or you suffer a horrible beat.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

To be clear about my new "unbreakable" rules for JJ and TT.

1. I will always open for a raise in any position (as I do with any PP).
2. If I am 3bet, I will fold. (Unless the 3bet is a min-raise and the villain is deep-stacked, in which case I will call)
3. Facing a raise, I will coldcall for set value, only if the raiser has at least 10x the size of the raise behind.
4. Against decent players, I will 3bet, particularly if the villain is OTB/CO and I suspect he may be stealing.
5. If I am 4bet, I will ALWAYS FOLD!

----------------------------------------------------------------

PS : Marc(Disconnected); In a feeble search for a humour, I butchered Albert King's Born Under a Bad Sign - "If it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all".

Sometimes I wonder ...

...whether I have learned anything about NL at all!

I am still treading water for August, up a miserable half a buy-in over 4,300 hands.

A few days ago, I said something to effect that I would get away from hands like TT and JJ 98 times out of 100, when I ran into serious and sustained resistance preflop. Well, I can now report that that was 100% prime bullshit I was spouting right there!

Last night I dusted off full stacks twice, once with TT, and again with JJ. You know that you are in trouble, when you get it all-in and you are praying that the villain flips over AK, rather than the monster over-pair that you know he really has!

I have a new goal to add to my others for August.

• Do not overplay TT or JJ preflop! These hands may be 3bet in certain favourable spots, but must be pitched when they run into a 4bet, or when they have been opened and run into a 3bet.

If I had been playing to this rule yesterday, I would be at least 2 buy-ins better off.

On a more positive note, the rakeback is rolling in! I have so far cleared over $100 this month.

To badly paraphrase the "Velvet Bulldozer", the late, great Albert King, "If it wasn't for rakeback, I wouldn't be making no money at all!"

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly!

I played about another 1k hands over the past two days, and I am now up a buy-in at $50NL for the month.

Three hands that I want to highlight.

Hand 1 :

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1343033

This hand is my biggest winning pot online to date! (I have won a couple of bigger pots live). Most annoyingly, the Prima software didn't show me what the villain had in defeat, maybe something like AJd for top/top and the nut flush draw?

Hand 2 :

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1343044

Villain plays 19/14 with an AF of only 1.14. How do you like villain's C/R on the flop? He has seen me open from UTG, so he should be giving me credit for some kind of hand. I thought about 4Betting the flop, but I figured that a big part of his range must be AA, KK, JJ, 33 and AK. I couldn't see him making that play with too much that I was beating here. Having said the above, I clearly should have slowed down and just called him down, although he was clearly going to ship it in on the river, as it turned out. When I saw what he had, I was outraged at his flop play!

Hand 3 :

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1343058

This hand was dealt at my other table, about 30 seconds after hand two (above) completed. I was still reeling from that experience, and so I tilt-pushed, which I am extremely ashamed of. I am certain that I pitch this hand 98 times out of 100. (Villain plays 33/11, not that I can honestly say that I even looked at his stats, before I insta-pushed!)

In summary, I am more or less treading water for the month, earning more in rakeback that I am in winning so far! I do feel comfortable at $50NL anyway.

Weekly Report - Sunday 5th August 2007

NL ($0.50) - 2,898 hands - VPIP 18.88 - PFR 14.98 - Won $52.77 - BB/100 1.82

Weekly Totals 2,898 hands - VPIP 18.88 - PFR 14.98 - Won $52.77 - BB/100 1.82

Monthly Totals 2,486 hands - VPIP 18.62 - PFR 14.68 - Lost $10.68



It has been a tough week! Had I not gone on a bit of a tear over the last 150 hands and won two and a half buy-ins, I would be staring at a significant loss on the week. I have made a few bad decisions along the way, but I have also run into some vicious spots (like losing a buy-in and a half yesterday with set-over-set).

I am still playing with confidence, and I am generally happy with my play. Yesterday, I decided to switch back to playing a single $50NL table for a while (rather than 2) so that I could concentrate on taking proper notes on the other players, particularly the other decent players, who I am sure will be around for a while, at this and future levels. (The rakeback deal is so sweet at Battlefield, that I am sure that quite a lot of these guys are locked in for the long-haul on Prima, like I am.)

When I get time this week, I will write a summary of my approach to note taking, so that I can get some pointers on how to do this better.

Suicide Kings!

I have done a bit better during my 2nd thousand hands of August, and I am now down just under half a buy-in.

However, the pocket kings nightmare continues! I have now been dealt KK 16 times in 2,100 hands, which is almost twice as often as is statistically likely, and I am showing a splendid overall loss of $59 with the hand.

Dodgyken suggested that I post a few of the hands, so here goes with the three biggest KK train-wrecks so far this month, in reverse order :

Hand 1 :

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1333444

Villain plays a splendid 66/0 game! I guess I should have been able to pitch this on the river, but villain priced the bet just low enough to tease a crying call out of me.

Hand 2 :

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1333453

Here villain plays a slightly better game, at 59/20! Are you happy with my lead on the flop? I figure that half-pot is about right, to be consistent with my holding AK or maybe AQ. I hate to just check here, conceding the initiative tamely to my opponent.

Hand 3 :

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1333648

The piece de resistance! Villain here is a decent player, at 16/16. What do you make of his min-3bet? I put his likely range on TT to AA, plus AK and perhaps AQ. When he leads the flop, I am happy enough. When he comes over the top on the turn, I am still feel I am ahead, as it was tough to put him on a 3, or 88.


One footnote. Today is a sad day. I have just finished reading the final Harry Potter book! I have read them all, of course, and it seems like I can relate a good part of the last decade to where and when I was reading these wonderful stories. On the bright-side; I now have more time to devote to reading some of the many poker books that I have stockpiled, that are either unread, half-read, or not at all well-understood, so need re-reading!

Poor start to August

I have made an inauspicious start to August, losing just under 2 buy-ins at $50NL over 1,100 in the past couple of days.

No major crisis. I have run into a few maniacs who got lucky on the big hands when the money went in, plus I can't seem to win with either Aces or Kings, except for when the table folds around to my open raise! (I have had KK 8 times in 1100 hands, for a loss of $30, comprising six small wins and two big losses!)

I am running at 17/13 which is a bit tighter than I would ideally like to be, but I think that this is mainly down to the fact that I have been tightening up whilst waiting for a nice spot to punish the maniacs.

I should be able to get a couple of thousand hands in over the weekend, so I hope to be heading in the right direction come Monday.

Objectives for August

I played one further short session on July 31st, although I played on my desktop PC, and therefore without the support of PT. I played two tables of $50NL for just over an hour, to complete my bonus at PokerRoom. I won just under $50, so I ended July winning about $550, which I am absolutely thrilled with!

I feel like my game has progressed a long way in July, so it is time to set some goals for August :

1. Increase my BR by $1000 (including rakeback). (I anticipate earning around $250 in RB in 10k hands of $50NL in August)
2. Play 10k hands
3. Post lots of suited connector hands on my blog (My PT analysis, prompted by Dodgyken's link last week indicated that I am losing money on suited connectors!)
4. Watch 3 CR videos per week, and take notes on key points raised
5. Focus on making better player notes - colour coding alone is not enough!

If I can achieve the above, I will be bankrolled to take a shot at $100NL by September 1st.

Good luck to all for August!